Tom Scudder ([info]tomscud) wrote,
@ 2008-06-13 14:16:00
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Deep written SF geekery: most promising writers of 1982, in hindsight
Okay, so [info]james_nicoll, referencing the passing of Algis Budrys, posted Budrys's top 10 most promising sf writers of 1982:
1. Paul Preuss
2. Parke Godwin
3. Arsen Darnay
4. Michael Swanwick
5. Somtow Sucharitkul
6. Victor Besaw
7. Lucius Shepard
8. Madeline Robins
9. Robert L. Forward
10. Robert Frazier

[info]dd_b opined that "none of them has in fact turned out to be at all important in the field". I asked him who he thought you could put on that kind of a list, in retrospect, and then proceeded to do a bunch of google-assisted brain-dredging. Here's as far as I'm willing to go on a list (in no particular order after #2):

Basic rules here are the writer had to have something in print, but had to have not yet established him or herself as the important figure in the field they later became.

1 - Terry Pratchett (had written 2 minor SF novels and, years earlier, a juvie fantasy novel that he later completely rewrote before allowing it back into print; later became a significant portion of the entire British bookselling market)
2 - William Gibson (had published a few well-received short stories. Later published NEUROMANCER and became the father of cyberpunk)
3 - Orson Scott Card (had written the novella of "Ender's Game" but didn't publish the novel until 1984)
4 - Vernor Vinge (had been writing publishable stuff since the 60s, but only his then-recent novella "True Names" really caught fire. Later would publish a small number of extremely-well-received hardish SF novels).
5 - Connie Willis (Hadn't won any of her 34 or so Hugo Awards yet)
6 - David Brin (STARTIDE RISING came out in '83)
7 - Greg Bear (had written four novels, but didn't make his big splash until the short story "Blood Music" in 1983, and the novel EON (1985))
8 - C. J. Cherryh
9 - Tim Powers (Had written 2 early SF novels plus THE DRAWING OF THE DARK - really took off with THE ANUBIS GATES In 1983).
and
10 - Swanwick (dd_b says of Swanwick and Lucius Shepherd: "To my eye they're off in a dead corner of the field that they helped invent, but which never took off; but opinions may vary." Mine varies, at least in Swanwick's case.)

Bonus:
Robert Jordan was technically in print at the time, with a trilogy of historical romances under a different pen name, as well as a couple Conan books. However, it would have taken some truly heroic clairvoyance to see him as the huge commercial success he would later become, so I think he probably doesn't really count.



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[info]dd_b
2008-06-14 03:59 am UTC (link)
This list tends to make me think Budrys wasn't too good a seer. Not that I actually expect anybody to be.

Although Vinge is the only one on either list that I'm excited at the prospect of a new book from these days. And the last Vinge was quite disappointing.

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[info]tomscud
2008-06-14 02:51 pm UTC (link)
Yeah. (I'd add Pratchett, though who knows for how long). But we're talking 25+ years - that's a long time for anyone to be a productive writer.

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[info]radtea
2008-06-20 08:44 pm UTC (link)
Kim Stanley Robinson had already published "On the North Pole of Pluto" (which became the basis for Icehenge) in 1981.

While I think he fell down and never got up at Red Mars, he did great things in the '80's. The Orange Country Trilogy is excellent and important, and the novella "Green Mars" is brilliant, and while Icehenge is uneven it's still an important novel.

So I think he probably belongs on the list.

Despite Connie Willis' popularity I wouldn't put her on the list, and I don't think I've read any Stanwick. I thought Shepherd was over-rated even when he was just considered "promising" but I think that's because, like Willis, I just don't get what he's doing.

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[info]tomscud
2008-06-25 01:52 am UTC (link)
Ooh, yeah, Robinson would be on the list. I totally forgot him. I liked his Antarctica book.

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